PDP May Lose Clear Majority

Dr. Haliru Mohammed ,PDP Acting National Chairman


By Yemi Adebowale

After last week’s botched election, Nigeria’s festival of demo-cracy finally begins Saturday as the rescheduled National Assembly polls hold across the country, except in 15 senatorial districts and 48 federal constituencies where the poll has again been shifted to Tuesday , April 26.

There are, however, indications that the Peoples Democratic Party may lose its stranglehold in both Senate and House of Representatives as the race is too tight and too close to call in several senatorial districts and House of Representatives constituencies.

Following THISDAY projections, PDP is unlikely to garner 65 seats to take a clear control of the 109-member Senate. The same scenario may play out in the 360-member House where it may also be difficult for the party to muster a firm grip.

At the moment, PDP has about 83 senators and 240 House members.

Going by the projections, PDP senatorial candidates are gasping for breath in the North-west where General Muhammadu Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change is on the upswing while the Action Congress of Nigeria is also on the rampage in the South-west and may take a majority of the senatorial seats in the zone.

The All Progressives Grand Alliance is likely to snatch some senate seats in the South-east.

According to the projections for the Senate poll, district by district, PDP may pull some strings in the senatorial race in the North West but CPC may have an edge. In Kebbi and Katsina State, which is the home state of General Buhari, CPC is expected to clear all the seats.

PDP looks likely to emerge winner in Kaduna North due to the influence of Vice-President Namadi Sambo and Kaduna South because of the incumbent Governor Patrick Yakowa.

Also, the race in Kano State looks set to be between CPC and ANPP, with CPC likely to emerge winner.

Sokoto State, which is governed by PDP, would also witness a keen contest between PDP and CPC, but CPC is likely to come tops but Zamfara looks set to be won by PDP.

For the South West, ACN is likely to win majority of the senatorial seats, especially in Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, and Ogun states.

Abia State looks set to witness a tight senatorial race in which one of two prominent parties – PDP and Progressive Peoples Alliance - may just escape with a narrow victory.

While PPA seems likely the carry the day in Abia North, Abia Central and Abia South would likely go to PDP.

The senatorial race in Ebonyi State would be fought prominently between PDP and ANPP. Ebonyi Central may be won by PDP, the ruling party in the state, and Ebonyi South may go to ANPP considering the influence of the ANPP chairman, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu.

The election in Ebonyi North is postponed till April 26.

In Enugu State, PDP and PDC are clearly the most prominent contestants, but PDP may carry the day. PDP may win in Enugu West and North, but Enugu East may go to PDC.

The three senatorial seats in Imo State would be keenly contested between ACN, PDP, and APGA but PDP may likely win.

For Anambra State, which is governed by APGA but represented in the state and federal legislatures by almost only PDP members, the people seem set to witness a keen contest between ACN, APGA, and PDP.

It is difficult to predict the result for the state based on THISDAY projections.

Meanwhile, President Goodluck Jonathan has promised Nigerians that their votes will count in Saturday’s National Assembly election and subsequent ones in the country.

Also, the Independent National Electoral Commission has created additional polling points for today’s election in order to ease voting and quicken the process.

The President who spoke Friday at the inauguration of the re-established Army barracks at Ohafia in Ohafia Local Government Area of Abia State assured: "Our votes must count. It is one man one vote; one woman one vote."

Jonathan also again reacted to the doubts generated by the hitches encountered by the independent national Electoral Commission in conducting the 2011 elections, insisting that he has strong confidence that the electoral body would at the end of the day come out with free, fair and credible election.

The President also urged Nigerians to get seriously involved in the issue of security saying that national security is a collective responsibility with all Nigerians as stakeholders.

Jonathan reiterated the determination and commitment of his administration to provide adequate and sustainable peace and security in the land, noting that the it was pursuant to this policy that the Ohafia Army barracks was revived.

He therefore admonished every Nigerian, especially the political class to dump their tendency of jeopardising national security, urging that national interest should underline every action they take in pursuit of their political ambitions.

INEC has also warned under-age voters to stay away from polling stations as security agents are under strict instruction to arrest them.

It also emerged that the commission engaged all facilities of the Air Force, Navy and Police particularly aircraft in distributing election materials.

Mr. Kayode Idowu, Chief Press Secretary to INEC Chairman Prof. Attahiru Jega, told THISDAY that the commission was already receiving reports by Friday night that materials were being received at their locations.

“What happened last week will not repeat itself,” he said, “We are very optimistic that the election will go on in areas listed for the poll.”

Idowu said the state Resident Electoral Commissioners had been asked to create additional polling units to ease voting to ensure that each polling point do not take more than 300 voters.

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